AMRO Downgrades Cambodia’s Economic Growth to 2.7 Percent This Year
AKP Phnom Penh, April 07, 2020 —
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) today released its annual flagship report which shared the common situation of the ASEAN+3’s economic growth for this year and next year after COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the AMRO’s report, Cambodia’s economic growth this year is projected to achieve only 2.7 percent, but will rise to 6.8 percent next year.
After COVID-19 pandemic, AMRO projected that Thailand will face -6.0 percent and recover to 4.0 percent next year. Singapore will face -1.0 percent and recover to 2 percent. Malaysia will face 0.1 percent and recover to 4.6 percent. Indonesia will face 2.3 percent and recover to 5.3 percent. Brunei Darussalam will face 3.0 percent and down to 2.9 percent. Lao PDR will face 3.8 percent and recover to 6.2 percent. Myanmar will face 4.5 percent and recover to 6.9 percent. The Philippines will face 4.5 percent and recover to 6.7 percent. Vietnam will face 4.5 percent and recover to 7.0 percent.
“2019 was a highly eventful year, marked by the escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, domestic political unrest, market sell-offs, and extreme weather conditions,” said Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO’s Chief Economist.
“Just as we were closing the 2019 chapter on a brighter note with the conclusion of the U.S.-China Phase One trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East flared up, driving up oil prices. No sooner had this subsided, the ‘black swan’ COVID-19 virus broke out in China and turned into a global pandemic.”
The rapidly evolving economic and financial market fallout from the fast-spreading pandemic has resulted in the need to constantly reassess the outlook.
AMRO now projects the ASEAN+3 region’s growth to decline sharply to 2 percent in 2020, followed by a strong rebound to 5.5 percent in 2021. Europe and the United States are expected to go into recession just as the outbreak subsides in China and Korea. As a result, China’s economic recovery will be much weaker at 3.5 percent in 2020.
The ASEAN countries are experiencing a surge in the COVID-19 infection and governments have taken very strict measures—including national lockdowns—to contain the outbreak, and adopted large stimulus packages to support their economies. Nonetheless, the ASEAN economies are expected to weaken sharply and grow at an average of 1.1 percent in 2020, before recovering to 5.2 percent in 2021.
By Khan Sophirom